Sept. 12, 2016

Options Backtesting Results

Historical average return: +$984.48 (backtested over 1.7 years)
Historical success probability: 36.0%

Summary

The cost to purchase gold call options has fallen 15% since August 24th as Fed rate hike probabilities have swung. An options backtest shows positive expected value on these calls historically, and they may present an effective way to play this month's Fed decision for those that are anticipating a hike.

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