Aug. 2, 2018

Options Backtesting Results

Historical average return: +$7,105.01 (backtested over 18.6 years)
Historical success probability: 53.1%

Summary

There was a large buyer of $210 strike Apple calls prior to the earnings release when Apple was at $190, and traders are continuing to pile into these options today even after they've increased 4x in value. A backtest of this trade shows significant positive historical expected value. Options traders are positioning heavily for more upside in Apple over the next few months.

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